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The cotton industry into the depth of interpretation: cotton

发布时间:2017-04-20 发布者:admin 所属类别:Industry news

New policy is expected to stabilize the strategic status of Xinjiang cotton highlights
From the historical point of view, the changing trend of the cotton policy is to weaken the intervention of the administrative means to the price, and to guide the development of the mechanism of the formation of the cotton price market. Three years of temporary storage of cotton supply stable, but the administrative intervention in the domestic and foreign spreads rapidly widening, the cumulative amount of days of inventory to be digested; thereafter, cotton policy to target price adjustment, the core is to guide the market-oriented pricing mechanism for further regression; stabilization policy is expected, the target price reform new deal to improve market pricing, guide the cotton planting regional structure adjustment as the goal, in the textile industry in Xinjiang under the background of supporting policies, highlighting the strategic position of Xinjiang cotton industry.
Xinjiang yarn replacement enhancements, supply and demand gap will continue
Since 2013 China's overall amount of cotton remained at 8 million tons / year, high to low the spread of cotton imported yarn represented indirectly enhance the ratio of cotton; the difference of the target price subsidy policy, earnings downward caused by mainland cotton farmers will reduce cotton transfer to Xinjiang; international influence, domestic demand a broad space to. To reduce the cotton supply background in cotton will, in short supply situation will continue, cotton reserves should be the main way to make up for a round of season and the gap between supply and demand of cotton. The recent cotton spreads narrowed significantly reduce the cost of textile enterprises end pressure, Xinjiang gradually replace imported low yarn yarn, the regional structure of cotton consumption gradually from inland to Xinjiang transfer; roughly 18 million spindles full production situation in Xinjiang cotton consumption or more than 2 million 500 thousand tons, accounting for 2016 Xinjiang cotton yield 70%, with Xinjiang yarn production release Xinjiang cotton or will continue to reduce the proportion of.
The influence of the weakening of policy market, cotton prices into the upward cycle
Do not consider the cotton yarn import substitution is expected to China's cotton stocks will resume in 2020 to the equilibrium level, the policy effect of throwing storage based on uncertainty of rhythm gradually weakened; close to historic lows in the spread of cotton and cotton stick spreads and cotton polyester spreads are low in the background, taking into account the differences of target price policy for compressed mainland farmers cotton, cotton consumption will return to Xinjiang by indirect substitution, the gap between supply and demand will exist for a long time, cotton prices into the upward cycle. The short throw reserve policy is crucial, considering this year cast storage started early, and the relative price of textile enterprises inventory showed larger changes, cotton prices skyrocketing prices during the cast storage is difficult to reproduce; weak end demand recovery in the background, taking into account the gap between supply and demand and cotton demand, is expected before the new cotton market cotton price trend before the weak strong, after the shock upstream.
Choose the leading position of Xinjiang profit recovery, see resources
The two quarter of last year and prices soaring environment preferred to have low cost inventory of the underlying logic of different prices, the long-term upward phase, the profitability of the cotton industry tends to recover, taking into account the previous inefficient capacity automatic clearing, industry competition pattern optimization, leading enterprise competitive advantage of textile enterprises significantly improved profitability; main recommendations focus on the layout of the whole industry chain leading Lu Thai A. In addition, a rough estimate of Xinjiang tons of yarn production cost is about 2200 yuan mainland low cost advantage, Xinjiang yarn production narrowed spreads and policy support under the background of significant in the cotton industry; regional structure adjustment trend, concern about the proposed layout of Xinjiang card capacity, the resource advantage of Huafu and Xinye textile.
Risk warning:
The risk of 1 domestic cotton spreads significantly expanded;
2 Xinjiang textile industry support policy change risk.

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